Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 55 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 83 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 57 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 50 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 52 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 63 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 39 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 34 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.