US March non-farm payrolls +228K vs +135K expected

  • Prior +151K (revised to +117K)
  • Two-month net revision: K versus -2K prior
  • Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.1% expected
  • Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.1519% versus 4.1396% prior
  • Prior unemployment rate: 4.1%
  • Participation rate: 62.5% versus 62.4% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 8.0% prior
  • Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.3% versus +0.3% expected
  • Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.3%
  • Average hourly earnings (y/y): +3.8% versus +3.9% expected and +4.0% prior
  • Average weekly hours: versus 34.2 expected and 34.1 prior
  • Change in private payrolls: +209K versus +140K expected and +140K prior
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls: +1K versus +4K expected and +10K prior (revised to +8K)
  • Government jobs: +19K versus +11K prior
  • Full-time jobs: +459K versus -1193K prior
  • Household survey +201K vs -588K prior

This is a solid number and I think it reflects something that Bank of America highlighted: Weather was poor in February and that may have suppressed employment; it’s bounced back. Leisure and hospitality rose 43K after a -17K previously.

The US dollar is modestly higher on the numbers but there is some serious incongruity between a strong jobs report here and rising inflation along with the market pricing in more than 5 Fed rate cuts in the year ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.