• Prior was 50.9
• Prices paid 62.4 vs 55.8 expected (prior 54.9)
• Employment 47.6 vs 50.3 prior
• New orders 48.6 vs 55.1 prior (sharpest drop since 2022)
• Production 50.7 vs 52.5 prior
• Imports 52.6 vs 51.1 prior

This isn’t a great report but it’s above 50 for the second month. Prices paid are the highest since June 2022.

The commentary in the S&P Global survey of manufacturing highlighted higher output in order to front-run tariffs but increasing uncertainty.

• “The tariff environment regarding products from Mexico and Canada has created uncertainty and volatility among our customers and increased our exposure to retaliatory measures from these countries.” [Chemical Products]
• “Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs. There is no clear direction from the administration on how they will be implemented, so it’s harder to project how they will affect business.” [Transportation Equipment]
• “Tariff impact has been minimal to overall manufacturing and raw material supply. Limits on U.S. government spending in key organizations like the Food and Drug Administration, Environmental Protection Agency and National Institutes of Health are delaying some orders.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
• “Inflation and pricing pressure continue to drive uncertainty in our 2025 outlook. We are seeing volume impacts due to pricing, with customers buying less and looking for substitution options.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
• “The incoming tariffs are causing our products to increase in price. Sweeping price increases are incoming from suppliers. Most are noting increases in labor costs. Vendors are indicating open capacity. Inflationary pressures are a concern. Our company is working diligently to see how the new tariffs will affect our business.” [Machinery]
• “Business is still slow, but some indications of improved demand are six to nine months out. Steel and scrap costs are increasing, and it’s too early to tell how high they will go.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
• “New orders continue to be strong after picking up in December. The uncertainty about tariffs keeps us cautious on spending, despite the strong sales right now.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
• “Management now has us running scenarios to project tariff impacts to our business. They want numbers in 24 hours on variables that equate to a wild guess. Interesting times we live in.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]
• “Internal analysis ongoing about impact of tariffs, but nothing concrete yet. General business conditions remain tepid; outlook on the durables side growing more pessimistic with growing domestic inventories of automobiles.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]
• “Customer volumes seem to be better than 2024. However, customers are still very hesitant to commit to long-term volumes due to the market uncertainty caused by proposed tariffs on steel/aluminum imports.” [Primary Metals]

USD/JPY is under some pressure following the ISM number, down about 20 pips since the release.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.