All NewsMarch 5, 2025

Stock Market Today: Stocks whipsaw amid tariff uncertainty, hiring slump

U.S. stocks turned higher in Wednesday afternoon trading, while the dollar sank to a three-month low against its global peers, as investors reacted to a potential compromise on tariffs while adjusting to a seismic change in German fiscal policy that will likely reverberate around the entire region.

Updated 12:53 PM EST

More tariff talk

Another tariff-related headline, this time suggesting the auto sector might be exempt from duties on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, is lifting stocks into the afternoon session and ahead of an expected statement from the White House later in the day.

Reuters has reported that President Trump held phone calls with the CEOs of Ford and General Motors, as well as the chairman of Stellantis, on potentially delaying tariffs on the auto sector by at least a month. 

The S&P 500 was last seen 35 points, or 0.61% higher on the session while the Nasdaq was marked 150 points, or 0.82% higher.

Updated at 11:24 AM EST

Crude realities

Global oil prices are trading at the lowest levels in four years, with U.S. crude testing the $65 per barrel mark, following a move by OPEC cartel members to boost supply and slowing demand tied to tariffs and economic uncertainty.

“The prospect of rising OPEC+ supply, combined with intensifying uncertainty over tariffs, hit oil market sentiment,” said ING’s head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson. “Overnight, there were suggestions that the Trump administration is considering some tariff relief on imports from Canada and Mexico. But heightened uncertainty is sending investors to the sidelines.”

Brent crude futures contracts for May delivery, the global pricing benchmark, were last marked $2.42 lower on the session at $68.63 per barrel, with WTI futures for April down $2.76 at $65.50 per barrel, the lowest since May of 2023.

Updated at 10:08 AM EST

Solid services

The Institute for Supply Management’s benchmark reading of the services sector, the biggest driver of U.S. growth, jumped notably higher in February, easing concerns of a tariff-related slowdown in the world’s biggest economy.

The ISM’s headline index rose 0.7 points to 53.5 points, well ahead of the Street’s 52.6 point forecast and firmly above the 50-point mark that separate growth from contraction.

“Anxiety continues; however, over the potential impact of tariffs. Some respondents indicated that federal spending cuts are having negative impacts on their business forecasts,” said ISM chair Steve Miller.

The S&P 500 was marked 18 points, or 0.31% higher following the data release, with the Nasdaq rising 53 points, or 0.29%.

Updated at 9:38 AM EST

Cautious open

The S&P 500 was marked  8 points higher, or 0.14%, with the Nasdaq nudging 27 points, or 0.15%, into the green.

The Dow gained 83 points while the mid-cap Russell 2000 slipped 1 points, or 0.04%, following the softer-than-expected ADP payroll report.

The rapid move by the Trump administration to implement large cuts to the federal workforce is unlikely to be reflected in the February report as the payroll survey was likely conducted too early in the month to capture them,” said EY senior economist Lydia Boussour. 

“We expect a more visible dent to federal payrolls in March and subsequent months with federal employment likely to see moderate monthly declines,” she added. 

Updated at 9:17 AM EST

Tariff confusion

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s comments during a Bloomberg Television interview have added to confusion on the government’s tariff plans and, alongside the weaker-than-expected ADP payroll report, pared earlier gains for U.S. stocks.

Lutnick, who said the President would make a statement on tariffs later this afternoon, less then 24 hours after imposing them on two of the nation’s closest trading partners,  hinted at a potential compromise but also reiterated the need for the additional levies. 

The S&P 500 is now called 5 points lower at the start of trading with the Nasdaq priced for a modest 20 point bump.

Updated at 8:27 AM EST

ADP jolt

The U.S. economy saw a notable softening private-sector job creation last month, suggesting tariff uncertainty and a pullback in consumer sentiment is having an impact on hiring into the early months of the new Trump administration.

Payroll-processing group ADP said around 77,000 jobs were created in the private sector last month, the lowest tally since July and sharp pullback from the upwardly-revised tally of 186,000 in January. Economists had expected ADP’s National Employment Report to show gains of around 141,000 as hiring slowed into the middle of the first quarter.

Stock futures pared gains in the wake of the ADP release, with the S&P 500 called 10 points higher and the Nasdaq set for an 80-point advance at the start of trading. The Dow is priced for a 35-point gain.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields held steady at 4.235% following the release, while 2-year notes were last pegged at 3.937% following their biggest two-day pullback of the year.

Stock Market Today

Stocks ended firmly lower again Tuesday, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.22% and falling deeper into negative territory for the year. The market move followed the Donald Trump administration’s introduction of tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China and another warning on consumer spending from retail giant Target Corp.  (TGT) . 

Investors pared some of those declines in the afternoon session, however, following news that Germany’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, plans to abandon the country’s debt brake so as to invest billions in infrastructure and defense projects. 

The sudden stimulus, perhaps the biggest change to Germany’s postwar economy since the country was reunified, sent German government-bond yields soaring, lifted the euro to a four-month high against the U.S. dollar and sparked a fresh record high for the regional Stoxx 600 benchmark. 

President Donald Trump’s address to Congress, the longest in history, doubled down on his trade and tariff strategy. 

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, meanwhile, suggested that Trump could be ready to compromise on the tariffs placed on goods within the USMCA treaty. whic he himself renegotiated during his last term in office, although the president defended his strategy in a speech to Congress last night. 

“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again,” the president said. “And it’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”

The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, however, has kept Wall Street on high alert, with the market’s key volatility gauge, CBOE Group’s VIX index, pegged at $22.85, near the highest levels since early December.

Related: Biggest U.S. bank overhauls stock market outlook amid tariff-linked slump

That suggests traders are expecting daily swings of around 1.42%, or 82 points, for the S&P 500 each day for the next 30 days. Yesterday’s peak-to-trough move for the benchmark was around 133 points. 

Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 suggest an opening-bell gain of around 38 points, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average called 252 points higher and the Nasdaq set for a gain of around 162 points.

Away from equities, the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its global peers, was marked 0.67% lower at 105.034 and trading at the lowest levels since early December. 

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields, meanwhile, were trading around 10 basis points higher from Tuesday levels at 4.246% heading into today’s ADP Employment report at 8:15 am Eastern Time. 

In overseas markets, Germany’s renewed fiscal vigor lifted the DAX more than 3.6% in midday Frankfurt trading, with the regional Stoxx 600 benchmark rising 1.54% after hitting a fresh all-time higher earlier in the session.

More Wall Street Analysis:

Overnight in Asia, China’s annual National People’s Congress of party leaders set a 5% GDP growth target for the world’s second largest economy, despite the U.S. tariff threat. That helped domestic stocks to solid session gains and lifted the regional MSCI ex-Japan benchmark 1.8% higher into the closing trading.

Japan’s Nikkei 225, meanwhile, closed 0.33% higher, although trade war concerns capped gains and continue to test investor sentiment.

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