• US January non-farm payrolls +151K vs +160K expected
• Canada February employment change 1.1 K vs 20.0K estimate
• Fed’s Powell: U.S. central bank does not need to be in a hurry to adjust interest rates
• Q&A from Fed’s Powell: No need to redefine price stability
• White House examining options for easing energy sanctions on Russia
• Fed’s Kugler: February jobs report was ‘a solid number’
• Fed’s Kugler: Sees steady monetary policy for some time on recent inflation data
• More from Fed Williams: Still thinks that the neutral rate is lower than in the 1990s:
• Trump: Government will explore pathways to acquire additional bitcoin holdings
• Trump: We will shrink the government and grow the private sector
• Fed Williams: No sign of inflation expectations becoming onmoored
• Canada trade minister: 40% of products exported to US are free-trade agreement compliant
• ECB’s Centeno: We are almost out of woods in this inflationary cycle
• Fed’s Bowman: Labor market and economic activity to become a larger factor in disucssions
• Sheinbaum: If we don’t put tariffs on what’s coming from US, they won’t put tariffs on us
• Mexico economy minister: We have to reach an agreement about steel and aluminum
• Morgan Stanley cuts 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.9% prior

Markets:

• Gold up $1 to $2911
• US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.31%
• WTI crude oil up $0.71
• S&P 500 up 0.5%
• EUR leads, CAD lags

It was a lively week but non-farm payrolls didn’t add to the drama. The headline was close to estimates and the market moves afterwards were modest. A closer look at the report showed some weakness in the household report but the market was worried about a bigger deterioration and there was something of a relief trade.

That wasn’t the case in the tariff war though as Trump threatened more against Canada as soon as this weekend. USD/CAD hit a session high of 1.4426 on that and the loonie underperformed by a solid margin.

There was continued equity market selling in the US morning but that bottomed at noon and was followed a nice relief rally late to stem what was the worst week since September. USD/JPY followed that trade as it made a double bottom just below 147.00 and jumped a full cent in the final 4 hours of trading. That was helped by steady selling in Treasuries.

The comments from Powell didn’t hit on anything new but came along with the equity market rally turn so some might have sensed less hawkishness. That’s tough to square with the rally in USD/JPY though.

Tariffs and politics were the overwhelming force in markets this week and that’s not going to go away as we count down to steel/aluminum tariffs next week and reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

In the meantime, it’s the weekend and time to rest up for another marathon next week. Thanks for reading.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.