Expect some big Jan-Feb trade surpluses as exporters front-run tariffs.

• Prior was +0.71B
• Exports B vs 69.46B prior
• Imports B vs 68.76B prior

The December surplus was the first one in 10 months. Ongoing strong trade numbers will flatter GDP but that will reverse later in the year. In any case, this looks like it will make for a very strong Q1 GDP print.

In a sign of tariff uncertainty, exports of motor vehicles and parts (+12.5%) increased the most in January, mainly because of higher exports of passenger cars and light trucks (+17.1%). Exports of consumer goods rose 7.8% in January. Exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts (+12.6%), which rose for a third consecutive month.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.